Showing posts with label evidence. Show all posts
Showing posts with label evidence. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 27, 2015

Seeing the world with fresh eyes

The Einstellung (set) Effect is the topic of today's entry. This phenomena is described by the researchers Merim Bilalić, Peter McLeod, and Fernand Gobet. Their original article that I will be referencing in this post can be found here:

Why Good Thoughts Block Better Ones: The Mechanism of the Pernicious Einstellung (set) Effect

"The Einstellung (set) effect occurs when the first idea that comes to mind, triggered by familiar features of a problem, prevents a better solution being found. It has been shown to affect both people facing novel problems and experts within their field of expertise. We show that it works by influencing mechanisms that determine what information is attended to."

What this essentially means is that our prior knowledge and expertise in a specific area can actually work against us when facing new problems, especially in regards to new situations that have similarities to ones we have dealt with in the past. Our previous knowledge can essentially blind us to the superior solution because we are stuck thinking about the problem in a very limited way that had worked in the past in a very similar but still different situation.

The researchers experimented with Chess players to show the Einstellung (set) Effect in action. Expert Chess players were presented with the task of achieving a checkmate in the shortest amount of turns possible. The quicker and lesser known solution was 3 turns and the more well-known solution was 5 turns. By and large, even the most experienced players were stuck on the 5-turn solution because that was the one they had the most familiarity with. As a result, all their attention was on the longer solution and it effectively stopped them from considering the superior solution. The researchers took the experiment a step further and asked the players if they were even considering the second superior option while working on the task. The majority claimed that they were. However, by using eye-tracking software during the experiment, they were able to analyze the truth behind these statements. The eye-tracking data showed that the Chess players were not in fact actively attending to the other solution. Their eye movements clearly showed they were primarily paying attention to parts of the Chess board relevant to the longer and more well-known solution. According to the authors:

"We show that the origin of the effect was that players continued to look at the squares related to the first idea they had, even though they reported that they were looking for alternative solutions. The eye movement data suggest a mechanism by which one pattern of thought can prevent others coming to mind."

The players who failed to find the shorter solution were then presented with a Chess problem where the only solution was the 3-turn one and the longer solution was no longer possible. In this scenario, they had no problems finding the new solution, which proved they had the ability to see the shorter solution all along. However, there is an additional detail here. These Chess players who had initially failed the 2-solution problem took longer to solve the new 1-solution problem than players who had never been exposed to the initial 2-solution problem. In essence, their "blindness" from the initial experiment was still negatively affecting them in a new scenario.

The entire study is yet another illustration of how everyone, both experts and novices, are prone to confirmation bias. Once we assess a situation and believe we have found the "correct" path of action to take, alternate solutions are much less likely to be considered. We are fixated on the single solution that we believe is the true one and as a result we fail to account for evidence that can prove us wrong or change our views and align them more with reality. Instead, we primarily welcome evidence that confirms our views and are selective in what information we process.

The authors go on to state that such shortcuts in thinking are not necessarily counterproductive. In fact, such thinking is efficient and  makes sense in most situations because it can allow us to save energy and time when trying to solve a problem:

"Cognitive mechanisms that prevent us spending time looking for an alternative solution to a problem when we already have an adequate one are obviously useful.. in complex real world situations people usually prefer to look for solutions that are good enough rather than spending their energy looking for an elusive best that may be out of reach."

However, such thinking obviously has negative consequences as well because it can lead people to

"repeatedly try to solve the problem with the same method even though it has proved unsuccessful  Constant failure to find a solution is not enough to change the schema they use."

Such discounting of relevant evidence can also lead to scientists in numerous fields to get fixated on the more familiar solution and fail to assess a problem objectively, which is an important goal of scientific research and thought. Perhaps the most troubling aspect is that even experts with years of experience do not realize they can be prone to such biases.

The takeaway lesson from all this is that no matter how experienced or knowledgeable you think you are, always be open to assessing a problem with fresh eyes and have the humility to admit that you can make mistakes and be prone to biases that cause you to discount important evidence that has the potential to prove you wrong. Making mistakes and changing your views as a result of new information should not be viewed as a negative characteristic. It shows that you are constantly willing to learn and are open to new ideas and solutions, no matter how much of a seasoned veteran you are.


Friday, December 9, 2011

Who or what are you citing? Where is your data? Where is your evidence?

I have noticed that I often rant at individuals that form arguments devoid of quantitative data, qualitative evidence, or both.  When asked for example, I fail to think of any individuals that perpetrate this type of thinking or situations where this kind of reasoning arises in. Therefore, I have decided to make a post every time I see this topic come up.

The latest example of this stupidity was recently covered by an NPR article titled

"GOP Objects To 'Millionaires Surtax'; Millionaires We Found? Not So Much."

The article can be found here: http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolitics/2011/12/09/143398685/gop-objects-to-millionaires-surtax-millionaires-we-found-not-so-much?sc=fb&cc=fp

The article covers Congressional Republicans' rejection of a surtax on millionaires.  Before I say anything, please realize that I am neither fully against increasing taxes nor decreasing them.  I can't look at situations in such a manner and make ideological, political, or policy blanket statements.  I consider each case individually and try to see if there is legitimate data to back up any particular stance that I decide to take.

The authors of the article went to find ACTUAL small business owners who gross more than a million dollars a year through their business.  They asked the business owners about their views on the potential tax and whether it would affect their hiring decisions.  After reaching out to Congressional and Senate Republican offices to get in touch with such folks, the authors were met with constant failure since all of them failed to produce individuals that could be interviewed, even anonymously.  Finally, NPR resorted to facebook and found several business owners that were willing to comment about such a tax.  Here is a snapshot of their comments:

""It's not in the top 20 things that we think about when we're making a business hire,"


"He says his ultimate marginal tax rate "didn't even make it on the agenda."


"Yankwitt [the business owner] says deciding to bring on another employee is all about return on investment. Will adding another person to the payroll make his company more successful?"


"If my taxes go up, I have slightly less disposable income, yes,"  "But that has nothing to do with what my business does. What my business does is based on the contracts that it wins and the demand for its services."


The republican response to such commentary DIRECTLY from business owners?
"Those I would say were exceptions to the rule," responds Thune. "I think most small-business owners who are out there right now would argue that raising their taxes has the opposite effect that we would want to have in a down economy."


Yes, I am singling out republicans in this case. But, the political ideology of the person making the argument doesn't matter.  It's the strength of your argument that matters.  In this case, Republican politicians are speaking for a constituency from whom they can't even muster up ONE individual, ONE, to honestly speak for them and make the case that this tax increase will stop them from hiring and as a result, stop them from promoting economic growth.  


We learn to form proper arguments while learning to write essays in HIGH SCHOOL.  When you make a statement, you back it up DATA, FACTS, or any other kind of legitimate EVIDENCE.  I am just amazed at how these Republicans can be *SO* adamant about an issue without providing any real evidence to support their views.   For instance, is there historical data showing that when taxes were increased on rich individuals or small business owners, there was a a clear drop in employment?  Is there data from other countries showing a drop in unemployment as soon as a new tax on businesses was initiated?  Is there ANY kind of evidence to support the view that Republicans hold in this situation?  I understand that it's problematic to make causal statements like this since there could be a variety of alternative explanations for sagging employment numbers but in this case, SOME evidence is better than no evidence at all.


As I originally stated, I have NOTHING against someone being against raising taxes. What I DO have a problem with is someone making a claim about the economy-killing side-effects of raising taxes and failing to provide any real data or qualitative evidence to back up their claims.



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